CoinDaysDestroyed_inLoss_excl_churn_STH

Tech spec

Brief Description: Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) for UTXOs spent at a loss (spending price < acquisition price).

CoinDaysDestroyed_inLoss_excl_churn_STH measures the CDD of UTXOs spent at a loss, helping to identify whether loss-taking behavior is dominated by Long-Term Holders (LTH) or Short-Term Holders (STH).

Metric variants

• _lth: CoinDaysDestroyed_inLoss_excl_churn_STH restricted to Long-Term Holders (age ≥ 155 days).
• _sth: CoinDaysDestroyed_inLoss_excl_churn_STH restricted to Short-Term Holders (age < 155 days).
• _non_churn: all spent utxo with a lifespan of less than 1h is excluded from the analysis. It useful to filter out transactions that are not economically meaningful, such as relay transactions and mixer.
• _normalized: normalized by the total Bitcoin supply.

Interpretation CoinDaysDestroyed_inLoss_excl_churn_STH can indicate whether the market realized loss are being spent by speculators (indicating a short term loss taking during corrections) or experienced investor (indicating a long term loss taking and bearish sentiment during bear market capitulations). A increasing CoinDaysDestroyed_inLoss_excl_churn_STH generally indicates the deterioration of bull market conditions and the arrival of bearish sentiment. A decreasing CoinDaysDestroyed_inLoss_excl_churn_STH generally indicates that loss taking is decelarating, suggesting a transition from bearish conditions to a healthier market.

Advanced Explanation CoinDaysDestroyed_inLoss_excl_churn_STH is reffering the concept of and Coin Days (CD) and Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), originally mentionned on Bitcointalk forum in 20211.

• Coin Days essentially measures the length of detention of a given UTXO. When a UTXO is transferred, the timestamp of the creation of the new UTXO serves as the Day 0 of detention. Then, when this UTXO is spend, the count of accumulated number of days of dentention (Coin Days) is set back to 0.
• Coin Days Destroyed measures the number of Coin Days that were set back to 0 by the spending of the UTXO. This metric helps to identify periods where old coins, often associated with HODLers or Long Term Holders are spent, whick can deliver insights about he market behavior and sentiment.
• CoinDaysDestroyed_inLoss_excl_churn_STH tracks the amount of CDD that were destroyed for every UTXO having a spending price inferior to its acquisition price. It can serve to identify the tendency of loss taking to be dominated by Long Term Holders or Short Term Holders.